The Telegraph reports today that the senior NATO officer in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, believes that the tide in the country is starting to turn against the Taliban.
““We’ve been at this for about seven months now and I believe we’ve made progress,” Gen Stanley McChrystal said in an interview with ABC television.
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The general recounted a recent meeting in the Helmand river valley in the country’s south – a former Taliban stronghold – as an example of progress underway.
“When I sit in an area that the Taliban controlled only seven months ago and now you meet with a shura of elders and they describe with considerable optimism the future, you sense the tide is turning,” he said.
Gen McChrystal issued a dire warning to Mr Obama in September, saying the Afghan mission could fail without more troops. Early in his presidency Mr Obama sent an additional 21,000 troops. It is these that have already begun to make a difference.
Only 8,000 to 9,000 of the second tranche of 30,000 have begun to arrive in Helmand.
Asked if Nato-led forces were shifting the momentum against Taliban insurgents, the general said: “I believe we’re doing it right now.”"
The Parallax Brief wishes he could believe such an upbeat report, and certainly hopes that NATO troops can defeat the Taliban; however, truth be told, he can’t. Indeed, he doesn’t think it’s possible for large, western democracies to win counter-insurgency wars at all.
Of course, we could, if we were willing to jettison our morality and return to the cold hearted brutality of days gone by; and if we could stomach hundreds of our boys coming home in body bags after fighting a war of dubious virtue. But we are willing to do neither, so how is it possible to combat a brutal enemy that is willing to lose 25 of his men for one of ours because he knows that if he can just hang in there long enough, time — or at least demographics, as Israel will soon discover — is on his side.
But, even looking at Afghanistan specifically, it seems strange that such an upbeat outlook has come hot on the heels of perhaps the gloomiest official prognosis yet, delivered on December 23rd during a briefing by Major General Michael Flynn, the top U.S. intelligence officer in the country, a slide from which is pictured below, and curiously unreported by the Telegraph.

According to Wired.com’s Danger Room blog, Gen. Flynn stated during his presentation that:
The Taliban not only has the “momentum” after the most successful year in its campaign against the United States and the Kabul government. “The Afghan insurgency can sustain itself indefinitely,” and, “The Taliban retains [the] required partnerships to sustain support, fuel legitimacy and bolster capacity.”
And if that isn’t enough, Flynn also warns that “time is running out” for the American-led International Security Assistance Force. “Regional instability is rapidly increasing and getting worse,” the report says.
The “loosely organized” Taliban is “growing more cohesive” and “increasingly effective.” The insurgents now have their own “governors” installed in 33 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. And the “strength and ability of [that] shadow governance increasing,” according to the presentation. The Taliban’s “organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding.”
Of course, it could be that the situation has changed dramatically since Gen. Flynn gave his briefing. You decide.

Former Vice President Richard Cheney has been lambasted since he left office for his strident criticism of the Obama administration. Leading members of an administration are expected maintain decorum and hold back on criticism of their successors for at least a year. Daniel Drezner, the largely conservative foreign policy expert, usually defends Cheney for doing so on the principle that Cheney feels strongly enough about Obama’s policy to speak out. But even Drezner seems to have reached the limit with 

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