The Department of What If…? The Brown Bounce.

January 12th, 2010 by The Parallax Brief

Remember the Brown Bounce? An increasingly unpopular Prime Minister replaced with his trusty, respected right hand man. A blizzard of new policy ideas. Invitations to opposition party members to join a more collegial cabinet of all talents. Flattering media coverage.

Remember that? With Gordon Brown now deeply unpopular both with voters and his parliamentary party, and all but certain to find himself out of office shortly after he dissolves parliament, it’s worth wondering how things might have been had he acted decisively and gone to the polls before the Labour Party conference in Autumn 2007. For Iain Martin, deputy editor of the Wall Street Journal Europe, the appearance of Peter Watt’s already infamous new book gives fresh opportunity to consider and blog about the “election that never was in the autumn of 2007.”

“It really was the most bizarre and fascinating period. However, events unfolded at such speed and with so much intensity that it has all become shrouded in myth-making.

Watt recounts his role in organizing the basis of a campaign with Douglas Alexander (Labour’s election co-ordinator). Leaflets were printed, candidates readied and limos ordered to ferry about the cabinet.

But while it is true that many believed right up until the moment that Brown called it off after Tory conference (in a humiliating interview with Andrew Marr in Number 10) that an early election would happen, it was already way too late by that point. In allowing the Tories to begin their Blackpool conference he had blown it.

What would have worked in terms of timing would have been for Brown to turn up on the first day of Labour conference having come straight from seeing the Queen (followed by the media circus) to say that he had asked for a dissolution. He could then have kicked off an election campaign from the podium, telling his troops to leave the hall and go out and fight for a fourth term etc. The Tories would have been blind-sided and all the momentum would have been with Labour.”

The Parallax Brief genuinely believes Mr. Brown would have taken Labour to an election win. The momentum was already with him, and a series of polls from ICM, YouGov, Ipsos-MORI, Populus and BPIX between September 16 and September 29 indicated as much, putting Labour 8, 6, 6, 8, 11, 13, 10, 11, 7 and 7 points ahead.

But alas…

“Instead, Brown waited, let the speculation build, delivered a stinker of a conference speech and then gave the Tories a chance to mount their fightback in Blackpool. The polls reversed and Brown pulled out in a panic on the Friday (only going public on Saturday).”

The folly of this is impossible to overestimate. Of course, Labour would likely have been returned with a reduced majority, and it is quite possible, even probable, that Mr. Brown’s personal weaknesses would have still risen to the surface to make him as unpopular with his party and the public as he is now. However, Labour would have been in power, and would have had another two and a half years from now to ride out the Great Recession, get the economy growing again, shed itself of the unpopular Brown, and give a new leader time to establish a new policy platform before what would have been a summer 2012 election. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that Labour could have been returned for a fifth term.

It might not be overstating the case to say that the Prime Minister’s decision not to call an election in the Autumn of 2007 was the most important and influential political moment of this generation.

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Could Maloney Frankess Spell the End of Nick Griffin’s Barking Dream?

January 11th, 2010 by The Parallax Brief

It’s not often that a story comes along that combines the Parallax Brief’s two loves in life, Boxing and Politics, so boxing promoter Frank Maloney’s decision to run as the UKIP’s parliamentary candidate for Barking was something that was always going to get coverage on this blog.

And in selecting Mr. Maloney as its PPC for Barking, the UKIP might have just pulled a master stroke

At first glance, it’s doubtful that the right of centre UKIP will be able to strongly influence a seat which is through and through red. Barking has returned Labour MPs since its creation in 1945, and while it’s incumbent, Margret Hodge, may be faced with voters itching to punish the government for the recession and the expenses scandal, she still has room for maneuver: Labour returned just under 14,000 votes at the last election, 9,000 more than the second placed Conservatives.

Interestingly, however, the BNP has had significant success in Barking in recent elections. It came tantalisingly close to becoming the constituency’s second party during the 2005 election, finishing only 17 votes behind the Conservatives. Furthermore, the BNP won 9 of the 30 council seats in the the parliamentary constituency’s wards during the last local elections.

BNP successes tend to come in working class areas in which hardship and malcontent mix with the disenfranchisement wrought by a Labour Party that has increasingly shunned its working class, socialist roots in favour of a centrist, socially liberal platform to fight the Tories for the middle-class centre ground.

However, the BNP also tends to excel in areas with a relatively small or newly arrived non-white population, and while Barking may have met that criteria in 2005, the number of ethnic minorities in the area has grown since. Meantime, Mr. Griffin’s presence is bound to attract both increased efforts from the main parties in an effort to make sure he doesn’t secure a seat in parliament, as well as heavy presence from anti-fascist activists. It all suggests that the BNP may not compete as well as feared.

However, against this, the potential for a protest vote against Labour is likely even greater this time around, with working class areas being savaged by the worst recession in living memory, immigration having turned into a full-blown election issue, and the government, and Ms. Hodge, still sullied by the expenses scandal.

This combination of demographic circumstances within the constituency worsening from a BNP point of view, and the resounding protest vote that the Parallax Brief believes is on its way in most of the country’s constituencies, may allow a candidate like Mr. Maloney to gain leverage in Barking.

Mr. Maloney, who is probably best remembered as the manager of world heavyweight champion Lennox Lewis, has a high profile and a deep well of goodwill in East London, a compelling life story, a sharp-witted cockney delivery style, and the kind of right-of-centre Sun-reader political dynamic that allowed Margaret Thatcher to capture Essex Man.

If the main three parties are increasingly stilted in speaking the language of the working class, Mr. Maloney is fluent. Read, for example, the straight-talking, no-nonsense way he tackled Mr. Griffin in his Independent on Sunday interview from yesterday, and compare it to the more pious, elite delivery of the mainstream parties:

“I’ve never met [Griffin], but I don’t like what he says. Yes, there is prejudice in this country, but it’s a prejudice that is controlled, and we have to learn to live together…

“Having Irish blood in me, I know my family were first persecuted when they first came to this country. I remember my father telling me that when I was born, they didn’t have anywhere to live and when they were looking for places, there were signs that said: ‘No Blacks, No Irish and No Dogs’. So it’s a big issue for me and we must stand up against it.”

And this message will be delivered in a way that couldn’t be more down-to-earth or authentic if it was shouted from the window of a yellow Robin Reliant.

It might be too much to expect him to repeat the 2005 success of seasoned political street-fighter George Galloway and win a working class, Labour stronghold by peddling a populist message to a constituency ripe for a protest vote, but the Parallax Brief believes that Mr. Maloney’s presence might be enough to scupper any chances Mr. Griffin has of winning the seat.

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Might a Hung Parliament Strangle the Economy — and the Conservatives?

January 5th, 2010 by The Parallax Brief

The three of you who have taken notice of this blog’s 2010 predictions will know that the Parallax Brief isn’t paying much attention to the media talk of a hung parliament. It is true that the polling gap between the Conservative Party and the Labour Party closed for a short while, but that gap hasn’t closed any since — and in some polls has widened again — and the Parallax Brief wouldn’t be guilty of using hyperbolic adjectives if he described Gordon Brown’s personal approval ratings as horrific.

However, via the excellent ConservativeHome website, the Parallax Brief found a video of an interesting Channel 4 News item exploring some of the structural biases which may push the election toward hung parliament territory, as well as very briefly explaining some of the possible consequences of a hung parliament.

Watch it:

It’s understandable given the time constraints of the piece above that the economic impact of a hung parliament wasn’t addressed in any depth, but it’s worth briefly expanding here. When the government borrows money, the interest it pays on that money is determined by the market’s collective view on two components: its assessment of what inflation will be over the term of the loan, and its assessment of the government’s ability to service that debt, or, in market jargon, inflation risk and default risk. If there is a hung parliament, it is less likely that the government will be strong enough to push through the unpleasant tax increases and/or spending cuts needed to bring our deficit under control. The market is likely therefore to increase the interest rates it demands to loan money because it will — correctly — conclude that the default risk has increased.

What effect will this have? Well, first, the cost of servicing all our debt will increase, meaning higher taxes or lower public spending than would otherwise be the case in the long run: we’ll all pay for our share of those higher rates. Second, mortgages and business loans will become more expensive, and any economic recovery will be slower and longer. If rates go high enough, the economy may even slip back into recession.

However, the Parallax Brief also wonders what effect a hung parliament might have on the Conservative Party. The question they would have to ask, given their failure to win an election against an unpopular, long serving government, against a massively unpopular prime minister, during the worst economic crisis since the great depression, and with the country embroiled in a bloody counter insurgency war in the Hindu Kush, would be, “How the hell didn’t we win that?”

The fissures within the Conservative Party (Eurosceptic vs. Europhile; Grammar Schools vs. Comprehensive Education; One Nation Conservatism/”Progressive”, Centre-right vs. Clear Blue Water/”Dry” Thatcherism) which have held together because the parliamentary party has been willing to bury its internal differences in order to maintain discipline before an election, would doubtless reopen amid the hang wringing and naval gazing bound to be precipitated by any difference.

If a full-blown split seems unlikely, remember that only 30 years ago the Gang of Four, the leading members of the centre-left, social democrat faction of the Labour Party, formed their own party, the SDP, in the face of increasing Labour hard left militancy, and got within a war in the South Atlantic of gaining power. And, unlike the SDP, the right wing, Eurosceptic branch of the Conservative Party would have the Mail and Telegraph, and considerable ground roots support, for its cause.

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An Alternative To Straw’s Altertantive Vote

November 25th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

Jack Straw, the Secretary of State for Justice, said yesterday that the House of Lords should be elected by proportional representation and the House of Commons should shelve the first-past-the-post system by which its members are currently elected in favour of the Alternative Vote system, according to the Daily Telegraph.

With the Alternative Vote (see chart, below), voters rank their preferences in order. If no candidate wins a clear majority, that is, garners more than 50% of the vote, the last place candidate is eliminated, and the ballots of that candidate are recounted, with their second choices being reallocated to the remaining candidates as full votes. This process continues until one candidate has a clear majority. The Alternative Vote, the Telegraph reports Mr Straw argued in a speech at the Magna Carta Institute, “would enable us to retain the single member constituency link…” but “would also ensure that every MP is elected with the support of over half of the voters in their constituency. In an age of multiparty politics, it could both enhance the legitimacy of MPs and enable the public to express a greater range of preferences.”

The Parallax Believes Mr. Straw is wrong. (more…)

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New Poll Throws Cold Water on Labour Comeback

November 23rd, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

A new Angus Reid Strategies poll for the Political Betting blog has Labour losing ground to the Conservatives, dropping to a 17 point deficit, only one point ahead of the Liberal Democrat Party. The news will be like political bromide for the Labour Party and its supporters, who had responded ebulliently to a MORI poll on Sunday that suggested Labour could yet close the gap.

The Angus Reid poll has the Conservatives on 39, Labour on 22 and the Liberal Democrats on 21. Of particular interest is yet another high score for “Others”, which scored 18. Is the high scoring from parties outside the big three due to genuine disaffection; the perceived lack of difference between Cameron and New Labour? Or is it indicative of voters who have not yet made up their minds: will these voters switch to Conservative once the election draws of a potential Labour 4th term into sharper focus?

It will be difficult to answer these questions without further data, which is not yet available as the poll was released by Political Betting early; however, it’s something likely to impact on the final election result, because standard models of election forecasting do not necessarily factor in such variables, and 18 points is abnormally high.

Ultimately, though, this poll might be seen as slamming the breaks on the so-called Labour comeback. Of course, it’s a poll for a blog, rather than a MORI, ICM, or YouGov poll for a big paper or TV channel, so it may not get the publicity of other polls, but certainly this early release prevents Labour from having several days to bask in the glory of two consecutive polls showing gains, making it harder for the party to generate positive momentum.

The Parallax Brief feels justified in arguing this morning that it was far too early to start predicting a hung parliament based on the MORI poll. It could, of course, be argued that the mood would change again if another poll was released showing Labour gains; however, as things stand, it looks increasingly likely that the MORI and ICM polls simply reflected the positive publicity garnered by the Glasgow NE by-election victory.

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Too Early to Plan for a Hung Parliament Despite Poll Swing to Labour

November 23rd, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

MORI Poll Labour Lead over Conservatives

A MORI poll conducted for the Observer shows the Labour Party gaining five points, narrowing the Conservative Party’s lead to six points. The shock results have offered succour to the Labour Party and its supporters, and has even prompted political pundits to pen columns outlining the implications of a hung parliament.

This is understandable. Any shift as large as MORI’s is likely to cause a stir among the political wonks and talkingheads, and it comes hot on the heels of the ICM data for the Guardian which also showed Labour gaining (albeit by only 2 points), suggesting a trend.

However, the Parallax Brief believes it is far too early to start talking of a hung parliament. First, one must account for differences in polling methodology. MORI’s polls are generally liable to produce more violent swings, and there is genuine reason to believe that this particular poll was simply taken from a sample of people more likely to vote Labour.

The excellent UK Polling Report blog has more:

…the big difference between MORI and other pollsters is that MORI do not politically weight their sample. All the pollsters including MORI weight their samples by known demographic figures like age, gender, social class and region. All except MORI also use political weighting, normally weighting by how people claim they voted at the last election.

… people aren’t very good at recalling their 2005 vote. ICM, Populus and ComRes take the view that past recall is pretty stable over time and can be estimated well enough to weight by, MORI take the view that it’s too unstable and should not be used for weighting. The result is that MORI’s samples run the risk of varying politically from month to month more than those of other companies (though MORI would claim the opposite – that other companies risk weighting out genuine public volatility).

MORI’s poll last month which showed a 17 point Tory lead, amongst those who voted in 2005 32% said they voted Conservative, 43% Labour and 16% Liberal Democrat. In this month’s poll which shows a 6 point Tory lead the figures of recalled 2005 vote break down as Conservative 29%, Labour 46% and 16% Liberal Democrat – so a 6 point change in the recalled lead from 2005.

The MORI polling data for the last several years gives an impression of the month-to-month volatility:

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Meantime, Mike Smithson at Political Betting notes that the poll has hardly moved the spread betting lines at all, with sporting index pushing down the Conservative seat spread to 353-357, and Labour up to 208-213. Betfair has seen similarly slight movement (as indicated in the chart below). Those who believe in the efficiency of markets, or the effectiveness of the wisdom of crowds to out-predict the experts, should take note.

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Further, Mr Smithson notes that both the MORI and ICM polls were undertaken shortly after Labour’s Glasgow North East by-election victory, which suggests the party gained from the brief surge of positive publicity which always comes with a by-election victory.

Of course it is true that not all the six point swing can be accounted for by MORI’s methodology, and that irrespective of mitigating factors such as timing, these are two great polls for a beleaguered Labour Party; however, those talking of a hung parliament need to wait to see if the next poll posts numbers that might suggest the beginning of a trend, or at least that public opinion has undergone a correction to a new normal, before talking of a hung parliament.

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Is Closing the Polling Gap Enough For Labour?

November 17th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

Labour, for the first time in quite a while, to the Parallax Brief’s knowledge, has closed the Conservative Party’s lead in the opinion polls. In an ICM poll for the Guardian, Labour now scores 29, up two, with the Conservatives down two at 42, and the Liberal Democrats up one at 19.

At face value, this is positive news for Labour and will offer its supporters a glimmer of hope that Labour may yet do what John Major manages in 1992 — bring an unpopular party back to government. But the Guardian focuses more on other questions asked as part of the poll, the answers to which do not augur well for the Labour Party in general and Gordon Brown in particular.

According to the poll, 42% of people would be either pleased or excited if David Cameron won the next election, with 36% angry or disappointed; while 27% would be pleased or excited if Mr. Brown won, as opposed to 53% angry or disappointed.  Further, the poll shows that the public see Mr. Cameron as “tougher, more decisive and more internationally respected” than Mr. Brown.

The Guardian frames this as evidence that the Tories are “closing the deal”, but whether this is the case or not, the Parallax Brief believes it is clear evidence that the Conservative lead in the polls is about more than just anti-Labour sentiment.

Despite this, as Mike Smithson said on the brilliant Political Betting Blog today, “movement is movement”. Ultimately, the Labour Party should be pleased with what is its highest ICM poll since April, and Gordon Brown in particular should feel safer after the double whammy of the Glasgow NE by-election win and this ICM poll showing a glimmer of an upward trend. If, as Mr Smithson predicts, tomorrow’s MORI poll shows something similar, the Labour Party may have hope indeed.

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Could Negative Voting “Seal the Deal” for Tories?

November 11th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

Mike Smithson’s Political Betting blog today offers a fascinating insight into what he calls negative voting, and suggests it might further accentuate the swing away from the Labour Party during the elction.

As we get closer to elections, it seems, there is one hardy topic that always emerges – that of the impact of negative campaigning and we saw in 1997, 2001 and 2005 how much of the Labour message was primarily about demonising the Tories.

But what about negative voting? Do negative messages chime with what some of the electorate wants and what’s the impact?

[...]

We do know that in 2005 ICM found that nearly one in five of all voters answered YES to the question “Did/will you vote … because it is your first choice or because you want to try and keep another party from winning in your Constituency?”

At the same time, on the eve of the 2005 election, Populus found that more than half of those voting Labour and Lib Dem were doing so “more because of negative views about other parties than out of enthusiasm..” for their own one.

All the evidence this time is that the mood is anti-Labour and my guess is that we might see disproportionate swings against the party in the marginals. For on top of the anti-Labour moves a lot of the anti-Tory votes that are locked in from the last three elections could unwind further distorting swing projections.

This seems exactly right to the Parallax Brief. There’s a palpable sense in the country now that people may not love the Conservatives, but these just want Gordon Brown and the Labour Party out. The Parallax Brief’s memories of 97 are still sharp, and while Labour might not be as unpopular now as the Tories were then, he remembers distinctly several people who would have usually voted LibDem or wouldn’t have voted at all switching their vote to Labour just to make sure the sitting Conservative MP wasn’t returned.

This factor will definitely be at play this time, and it will hammer Labour in even the not-so-marginal seats.

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Downbeat GDP Figures Shock Economists

October 23rd, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

According to Bloomberg.com, Britain’s GDP dropped 0.4% for the third quarter, shocking economists. A Bloomberg survey of 33 economists had predicted a 0.2% increase. Lingering slumps in services, manufacturing and construction were primarily responsible for the gloomy results. Britain is now in its longest recession on record.

Bloomberg reports that, “The data, the first for the third quarter from a Group of Seven nation, suggests Britain may turn out to be the last of them to exit the recession sparked by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.”

Given that unemployment is what is known by economists as a “lagging indicator”, that is, its movements lag behind GDP movements by 6-8 months, unemployment will continue to rise well after any recovery, making it increasingly likely, in the Parallax Brief’s view, that the Labour Party will hit the polls on election day with unemployment either continuing to rise or near the high watermark — even if the Prime Minister delays until the last possible date

Clearly, these results will deal not just a short term blow to Labour by associating the government with yet more negativity for a 24-hour cycle or so, but will also have grave effects in the long term.

The Parallax Brief would also like to point out that the figures make fools of the monetary and fiscal hawks, such as John Redwoood MP and the Adam Smith Institute, who are already antagonising for a savage cuts in public spending and the tightening of monetary policy.

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