Is the EU Living Up to the Cliches?

November 19th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

The Parallax Brief read this afternoon a fascinating insight into the EU presidential race on Charlamagne’s blog on the Economist’s website. About half way through, however, the slight thrill of being privy some insider information on the backroom deals and political horsetrading gave way to a queasy feeling. Heads of state, their diplomats slyly maneuvering to get the best deal for politicians, are deciding on two representatives with great power over hundreds of millions of people.

“…what takes me aback is the level of “distrust” out there about Mr Reinfeldt, to use the word chosen by a senior figure from one EU country. There are veiled hints that he is using his role as chairman of the selection process in a way that is not wholly straightforward.

Specifically, there is grumbling about Mr Reinfeldt’s decision to seek a very short list of candidates to put to EU leaders at their emergency summit, consisting of one or two names who enjoy near consensus before discussions even start. The thing about this system, it is alleged, is that it gives Mr Reinfeldt extraordinary power over the process, because once a candidate attracts any opposition, that candidate can be chucked off the shortlist as “failing to create consensus”. The accusation from some camps is that candidates are being chucked off too quickly, when the opposition to them might not be as hard and fast as all that. Nobody is quite accusing Mr Reinfeldt of using this system to kick people off the shortlist who he himself does not favour, but they are coming pretty close.”

Now, what does that sound like to you? It’s all well and good criticising as shrill extremists those who sound the alarm bells about the EU, comparing it to Soviet Russia, Fascist Germany, or any other totalitarian, illiberal, undemocratic society one might care to conjure, but reading this, perhaps they have a point?

It’s astonishing that even the Parallax Brief, who loves the idea of Europe and who isn’t really concerned about losing British sovereignty, should be driven by the bureaucratic morass and brazen circumvention of democracy to take this view.

Why, for instance, isn’t there a vote for EU President? Why aren’t we even considering this? Have we really become such a supine, venal people?

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Tory EuroFissure: Hague’s “Business as Usual” Approach to EU Asking for Trouble

November 9th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, told the BBC’s Andrew Marr that his party would not immediately take on the EU to repatriate the powers to the British Parliament demanded by Conservative policy, according to the Telegraph yesterday.

“After abandoning plans to hold a referendum on Europe, following last week’s ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, Mr Hague said the Tories accepted that constitutional reform would not be on the EU agenda for some years.

And while the party remained Euro-sceptic, a Conservative Government would not get into a “bust-up” over its new policy of seeking to negotiate opt-outs in a number of areas of European policy and pass a sovereignty bill to stop further powers being repatriated for some time to come.

Until then, he agreed that it would effectively be “business as usual” for Britain within Europe under the Tories.”

It’s clear to the Parallax Brief that David Cameron and his team do not want to divert their energies away from the main task at hand if and when they gain power: fixing the economy and Britain’s parlous public finances. It’s equally clear, however, that this isn’t going to satisfy the party base.

Sure enough, ConservativeHome was all over the story, furious at the suggestion.

“…he should not, not be suggesting, unless he wants to generate a massive split in the party, is that the policy is to be a low priority, something not all that important in a world of deficits to cut and wars to fight, something we might or might not get around to one day if we’ve nothing better to do. As I have argued here, Cameron’s hierarchy are mistaken if they believe that the route to an easy life is by doing little on Europe, and equally mistaken if they believe that addressing the Party’s overwhelming (and country’s heavy majority) concerns over Europe would use up political capital rather than create it for other priorities such as public spending cuts, the broken society, and education reform.”

Fighting talk?

Probably not. The Parallax Brief has come to the conclusion that Conservatives on both sides to the Europe divide will fume in private but bite their tongues until the election. They must know, as the Parallax Brief suggests, that the only thing that can stop the Tory Party winning the election is the Tory Party.

But that doesn’t mean that it isn’t storing up trouble for the future.

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Categories [ International Affairs, Tory EuroFissure, UK Politics ]

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Tory EuroFissure: French Government Lashes Out at “Autistic” Tory EU Plans

November 5th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

If there was any reason to doubt the egregiousness of the euroscpetic view that the major repatriation of powers, or even the post-facto nullification of the Lisbon Treaty if a referendum returned a no vote, would not lead to the mother of all diplomatic rows with Europe, last night should have dispelled any doubts, as the French government lashed out at the mere prospect of such steps.

According to the Guardian, France’s Europe minister, Pierre Lellouche, accused the Conservative Party of “castrating” Britain’s position within the EU by adopting an “autistic” approach to European relations and policy.

“It’s pathetic. It’s just very sad to see Britain, so important in Europe, just cutting itself out from the rest and disappearing from the radar map …. This is a culture of opposition … It is the result of a long period of opposition. I know they will come back, but I hope the trip will be short.”

“They are doing what they have done in the European parliament. They have essentially castrated your UK influence in the European parliament.”

The Guardian also reports that Lellouche said he has told Hague personally that his position was a “waste of time for all of us”.

The Parallax Brief is particularly interested in this point, as it provides some indication of just how difficult any negotiations with the EU will be for William Hague and David Cameron. How much compromise will Britain have to make? What will it have to give in return? And, most important, what compromise will his own party members, for many of whom all-out diplomatic war with the EU, far from being something to avoid, would likely be welcomed as an opportunity to reset Britain’s position in Europe altogether.

The Parallax Brief asks the question again: Can Cameron offer the Eurosceptic wing of his party enough red meat to satiate their appetite for a major recalibration of Britain’s EU relations without boxing himself into a corner where a major blow up with our EU partners becomes inevitable?

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Categories [ International Affairs, Tory EuroFissure, UK Politics ]

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Tory Eurofissure: Dan Hannan Resigns Post in Lisbon Protest

November 5th, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

Daniel Hannan, Conservative Party MEP for South East England, has resigned his post as party European legal spokesman in protest at Conservative leader David Cameron’s decision to recant from his promise to hold a referendum on the ratification of the Lisbon treaty. Mr. Hannan has become an immensely popular figure within Tory circles, due to his hit book, The Plan:12 months to renew Britain, uber-Eurosceptic views, and sharp, Labour-baiting tongue.

Recently the Parallax Brief has focused on the idea that only the Conservative Party can stop the Conservative Party from winning the next election, and it is the fissures that run internally — especially the intra-Tory split on Europe — which have the potential to derail the Tory locomotive which has hitherto appeared unstoppable as on its way to an election victory.

Indeed, the Parallax Brief believes that in the event of another election loss, hung parliament of slim majority, the Euro issue has the potential to become the kind of issue that might see the Conservative Party split altogether in the way Shirley Williams, David Owen, Roy Jenkins and Bill Rogers broke away from Labour to form the SDP in the early eighties.

The Eurosceptic branch of the Conservative Party simply does not see how the ratification of the Lisbon treaty makes a referendum any less feasible. They accept that it would lead to far greater diplomatic problems with the EU, but given that most want a vastly restructured relationship with Brussels, this is no concern.

Cameron must tread carefully if he is to offer these absolutists enough red meat to satiate their appetite for a showdown with the EU, while not enraging the europhile wing of his party by backing himself into a corner from which he is obliged to roll back Britain’s relationship with the rest of the EU.

The previous assumption had been that Tory MPs would hold their tongues and maintain discipline as long as it looked as long as the party was successful. But Mr. Hannan’s resignation and call to arms might suggest otherwise.

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Categories [ International Affairs, Tory EuroFissure, UK Politics ]

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Tory EuroFissure: Was Heseltine a Stalking Horse?

November 3rd, 2009 by The Parallax Brief

As mentioned in the previous post, on TrussGate, the Parallax Brief thinks it’s pretty obvious that from here on in the election is there for the Conservative Party to win. From this position, only they can lose it. Labour has been in power too long and the economy and public finances are in too much of a mess for Brown and Mandelson to hope to win by communicating a positive narrative about their vision for the future of the country. What they can (and likely will) do, however, is take the Karl Rove route and hammer away at Tory stereotypes (which is why Cameron must deal adroitly with TrussGate), and traditional fissures, the primary of which is Europe.

The Parallax Brief actually believes that so bad are the divisions on Europe that the Conservative Party has an (albeit incredibly small) chance of splitting on the matter.

Make no mistake, Mandelson will be leveraging at those cracks with everything he can muster every single day.

Cameron will have to, like Blair with the left wing of his party, keep iron discipline between now and summer 2010.

Which is why it was a great surprise for the Parallax Brief to see Michael Heseltine out of his iron lung and in front of a microphone complaining about David Cameron’s Eurosceptic decision to move the European Parliamentary Conservative Party away from the mainstream centre.

The only explanation the Parallax Brief can think of is that the more Europhile of the Conservative Party have tired of the Eurosceptics of the Telegraph and ConservativeHome dominating the intra-Tory debate from an anti-Europe platform, but are mindful of the wrath they would incur for opening up the party’s vulnerable European underbelly to the media. In such a scenario, Heseltine, with weight of reputation behind him but not beholden to the CCHQ mafia, would make the ideal stalking horse.

And perhaps he has. Certainly, it seems unlikely that this was a lone gunman case, something like the Last Temptation of Tarzan. Clearly, now that Lisbon looks as if it will be ratified by the Czech Republic, Mr Cameron and William Hague, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, will have some tough choices to make, and it seems that the lobbyists on both sides of the argument are gearing up for the fight.

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Categories [ International Affairs, UK Politics ]

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